HI Financial Services
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism,
mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the
best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to
sell.” John Templeton
What has been happening
so far this week?
Slow grinding market with now ALL-time highs. Ukraine headline risk is subdued due to
Putin’s comments last week. We seem to
be following the trend of last week breaking above 16,600 on the DOW and
looking to break 1900 on the S&P.
Right now we are fighting/using the law of round numbers. It is a psychological indicator in our
market. Next round for the DOW is 17,000
which means we should run there very quickly and then stop to test the round number. Once we break the round number it becomes
support. On the S&P 500 we are
testing the 1900 level. It seems to be a
black box trading trigger which just means as we touch the resistance level it
triggers sell orders. This is called
level 2 trading or black box trading.
With the sell in May and go away thought could major selling occur? It could happen but there are no “real”
returns to book in May. For that reason
and with the current market movement I would think we will grind higher.
Bad Retail sales number BUT upward revisions to last month
(+1.5) but this week is a week of retail earnings: WMT, FOSL, DDS, JCP, KSS, JWN,
Where will our market
end this week?
It all depends on retail earnings. Earnings movers are CSCO, WMT, JWM in the
retail sales number. Economic report all
come in on Thursday
We have a ton of reports
that will get scrutinized and Options Expire on Friday. This is the last moving week for the markets
in May. I would expect the markets to
break the 1900 on S&P and start testing the 17,000 Dow before the holiday
weeks of Memorial Day.
DJIA– WE are just
bouncing along creating new highs. The
highs are not huge so we are grinding along.
Higher highs and higher lows is good news.
SPX – The S&P 500
also is holding the RSI median line and the 50 day SMA. Grinding higher on the MACD and I like a calm,
COMP –Still in no man’s
land right now stuck between the 50 day and 200 day SMA but moving up to test
the 50 SMA in the near future.
Where Will the SPX end May
I would expect us to be
at 17,000 on the DOW and above 1900 on S&P
I would expect a flat
month and to be in the range of 1850 to 1900.
This means I can make my money with Covered calls, Credit spreads and
What is on tap for the
rest of the week?=
CSCO, DE, JACK, M, NTES
AAP, AMAT, JCP, KSS, JWN
sales, Retail ex-auto, Import, Export, Business Inventories
Crude, PPI, Core PPI,
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing
Claims, CPI, Core CPI, Empire
Manufacturing, Net Long Term TIC Flows, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Phil
Fed, NAHB Housing Index
Starts, Building Permits. Mich Sentiment – OPTIONS
Tues – JP:
Wed – EMU:
Thurs – DE:FR:IT:EMU:
GDP Flash, EMU: HICP
Friday – EMU:
Sunday – JP:
How I am looking to
I am in collars for 75%
of my portfolio. After earnings on some
stocks or on tech crossovers I adjusted
Collar: BIDU, MS, LNCO,
TSLA, FB, SBUX, BBY
Covered Calls: ½ AAPL,
D, DIS, VZ, SNDK
positions: AAPL, V, DIS, MEI, SNDK
Protective Puts: F, NVDA,
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
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