HI Financial Services Mid-Week 04-01-2014
What has been happening
so far this week?
Monday ended the first quarter with losses on all three
indexes? – CNBC Quote
Dow Dec 31st
– 16, 576.65 and on March 31st closed at 16,457.66 = DOWN 118.99
points less the 1%
SPX Dec 31st
– 1848.36 and on March 31st closed at 1872.34 = UP 23.98
COMP Dec 31st
– 4176.59 and on March 31st closed at 4198.99 = UP 22.4
This week we have
repositioning or re-balancing of portfolios.
Chicago PMI – 55.9 est 60.7
ISM Index 53.7 est. 54.0
Where will our market
end this week?
I would expect our market to continue in the short term
uptrend. Why? Over the last 4 weeks in
ALL of March initial claims – unemploymeny weekly numbers of people who file
for “new” benefits, has been going down.
Could headline risk move us bearish? Of course it could.
DJIA– We have a bounce
off of the 50 SMA and the RSI.
Technically the MACD looks like it is crossing back to the bullish
side. Another small 3% pullback that
appears to be profit taking on the end of a quarter.
SPX – The S&P 500
mirrors the DJIA right now. Same bounce
off the 50 SMA that is also a support level at 1833ish. Bounce off the RSI and MACD are about to
cross but have not confirmed the bullish move.
All-time highs as of 04/01/2014.
COMP – A “healthy” 7%
pullback from the March highs. The index
is still bearish on all three indicators but it did regain the 50 SMA. If you draw trend lines it bounced off the
bottom of the channel trend line.
Where Will the SPX end April
We are starting a new
quarter which normally means buying for funds and re-establishing
positions. The market received very dovish comments
by Yellen and earnings season starts with low expectations. Let’s shoot for 1900 again.
What is on tap for the
rest of the week?=
Spending, ISM Index, Auto Sales, Truck Sales
Wed: MBA, ADP
Employment, Factory Orders
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing
Claims, Challenger Jobs Cuts, ISM Services, Trade Balance
Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payroll,
Private Payroll, Unemployment Rate
Tues – FR:
Thurs – GB: Retail
Sales, JP: CPI, Household Spending, Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales,
Friday –GB: GDP, FR: Consumer
Mfgd Goods Consumption
Sunday – JP: PMI
Manufacturing, Industrial Production
How I am looking to
Added short calls for a
little of downside protection on positions that weren’t confirmed bullish like
DIS, V, FB. I’ve added full collar on
TSLA, SCTY, I also added ATM 160 BIDU April
Short calls for $10.25 credit to make up almost dollar for dollar to the
downside. With higher volatility I want
to protect by not overpaying for put protection.
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