HI Financial Services
You don’t know how much
you don’t know until you KNOW how much you don’t know – My Lawyer
What has been happening
so far this week?
We had our bounce back from last week. I am going to write a blog about “knee jerk
reactions”. Let me make it simple for
you who are following my blog right now.
YOU MUST have a methodology that allows you a little wiggle room to
allow the market to move. Yes, I thought
we would come back last week from Ukraine.
Why? We saw how “unimportant”
Ukraine was the previous week. A big
Monday drop and a great rebound on Tuesday.
I had many of you ask me how did I know the market would bounce back? Why did you buy into weakness (which is
something very difficult for me to do)? How are you able to sit through the
last two weeks?
Learn how to SPOT the turn.
I also have a methodology I
actually follow! We had no crossovers on
my technical indicators to start to position for a bearish market. The same scenario occurred the previous week
and I learned from my past
market experience and I think there is no real substitute for experience. I could have been wrong and been a little
late compared to everyone who positioned for a big 20% correction. But I wasn’t and the majority of the time
(85% plus) I will be right more often than you.
Am I smarter or better than everyone else? Heck NO!
I am just a little more patient and have a methodology that makes me
great money in a year like 2008. I have
a mythology that protects some of the downside movement and years ago I quite
trying to outguess the market.
Where will our market
end this week?
We are primed to make a run at new highs. We do have a FOMC meeting with Yellen
speaking for the first time. Her past
history shows she is very market friendly.
Unfortunately she has to give new guidelines or define the guidelines
going forward for the Fed. I think it is
a tough position to be in but she will most likely be given a pass and she
really can’t do any wrong. She continues
tapering and we satisfy the people who what to rein in the “spending”. Yet, we still have spending to support the housing
market. If she pauses, then we have
stimulus still in the market. We have a putt to support the market until the
next meeting in the quarter where we recover from our Christmas spending. If she increases the spending then off the
races goes our market.
DJIA – We got a great
bounce off the 50 SMA and the RSI median line.
Yes we broke below the technical bearish indicators. In fact the MACD, a preceding indicator, shows
a bearish crossover. What a great
example of “validating” the trend change.
SPX – NO “confirmed” technical bearish
crossovers. The MACD crossed but no EMA,
RSI median line held as support and no real bounce off the 50 SMA. Our bullish trend is still intact!
COMP – Still moving
higher with an intact bullish trend. The
chart looks much like the SPX. No
confirmed bearish crossovers.
Where Will the SPX end March
03-18-2014= I still believe we are going to test 1900 on
SPX. Yellen will set the stage to test
highs on all three main indexes. Yes I
think nothing has changed so the trend will continue to be my friend.
03-04-2014 = I am
calling the 1900 that I was calling last month.
Earnings are basically in so it only comes down to news. Mid-month we have a FOMC meeting and that
will make or break the gains for the month.
What is on tap for the rest
of the week?=
ADBE, HTZ, ORCL, RENN, SCTY
CAG, LEN, NKE
Starts, Building Permits, CPI, Core CPI,
Wed: MBA, Current
Account Balance, FOMC Rate Decision
Thur: Initial Claims,
Continuing Claims, Existing Home Sales, Phil Fed, Leading Indicators
Tues – JP: Merchandise
Trade, All Industry Index
Wed – GB:
How I am looking to
What a rough week last
week to sit thru volatility. On Friday
last week I did the best I could to buy into weakness. Now I didn’t go all in and it would have been
crazy to do so. But 2000 shares of DIS
and 1300 shares of V added. I took off Long
puts on Friday and cashed in Short Calls Monday morning. Now it wasn’t on every stock position but it
was on some important core portfolio positions. I rolled short calls to pick up some
volatility that bleed off the last couple of days. I am actively trading my expectations and it
is really paying off right now.
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