HI Financial Services Mid-Week Commentary 09-01-2015
When trading directional you have a 1 out of 3 chance to win or a 33% probability. That means you have a 67% chance to lose!!!! – Common Sense and plain Mathematics
Let’s go over an email I received to see what my competition is doing right now
If you are with Crosspoint you are out of the market which means:
They will miss the upside, are charging for doing nothing, have a 1 out of 3 chance to win
OK the next question I got was how are you doing this today when the market was down 469 points or 58.33 points on the S&P?
I am excited to add shares to DIS and I love making more on the long put than the stock loses in a day
But what about your newly purchased BIDU shares? They were purchased and then I added more protection
Protected with the At The Money (ATM) 145 Oct 15 Long puts
What’s happening this week and why?
Holiday week which means low volume and possible higher swings in the market
China PMI came in at a number that shows contraction in their economy
Our markets have known for a while China was at risk of having a “hard” landing
Is the bottom in and will it be a V shaped recovery = NO WAY
Where will our market end this week?
DJIA – Clearly bearish, No V shaped recovery and looks like the market wants to test the lows
SPX – Clearly bearish, No V shaped recovery and looks like the market wants to test the lows
COMP – Clearly bearish, No V shaped recovery and looks like the market wants to test the lows
Where Will the SPX end September 2015?
09-01-2015 I think the market will give us a 2% decline as the market bottoms in September for an end of the year rally
08-25-2015 I think the market will give us a 2% decline as the market bottoms in September for an end of the year rally
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Tues: HRB, QIHU
Thur: GCO, JOY
Tues: ISM Index, Construction Spending, Auto, Truck
Wed: MBA, ADP Employment, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Factory orders, Fed Beige Book
Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, Trade Balance, ISM Services
Fri: Average Workweek, Non-Farm Payroll, Private Payroll, Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate
Tues – FR:DE:EMU: PMI Manufacturing
Wed – JP:CN: PMI Composite
Thursday – FR:DE:EMU: PMI Composite
Friday – DE: Manufacuring Orders
How I am looking to trade?
Cashed in some of my collar profits and bought more stock. In protective put trades for the new positions created by adding more share. Have Oct long put collar trades where I am getting ready to cash in on those profits around another test of the lows of the stocks and the market indexes
If you can’t do it I can for you !!!
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