HI Financial Services
When markets fall right now and
fear overwhelms so many, opportunity abounds – Brian Wesbury
What has been happening
so far this week?
Nice to have a 3 day weekend! With Monday off the market seems to be taking
a breather. The Nasdaq and S&P 500
notched a small gain today. Monday the
international market showed some follow through from last week’s US market
lead. Our markets are bullish and we
will see if the trend continues throughout the end of the wee.
Where will our market
end this week?
I would expect a slower continuation of the bullish trend. News and continued earnings are going to be
the catalyst for continued bullish movement. We also have options expiration
the end of the week. Look for short
covering or option covering on Friday which can see bullish movement in the
market. We also have minutes from the
Bank of England and the US Federal Open Market Committee. I believe the key to continued upward
movement is the fact “expectations” are considerably lower due to the
weather. Cold weather is the catch all
excuse for the worse than expected earnings, economic reports and for people
not able to find new employment.
DJIA – We had a good
bounce off of 15,375. The key to the
chart is the 50 SMA and the index is currently above that resistance line. That means look for 16,101 an the new support
and it is considered healthy to test that level a couple of times.
SPX – We also got a
bounce from the 1740 level. Look at the
SPX test the highs. One or two tests and
look to see the SPX head to the next round number which is 1900
COMP – Bounce off of
4000 or a “round number” as I like to call it.
We are off to new yearly highs.
Where Will the SPX end February
We have our bounce. If we can post closes above 1850 we could end
the month at 1900. That would be a
pretty good number to be wrong about. WE
still have the Fed pit or the “Yellen” put in place and we have tapering at a
rate the market can digest.
Looking for the
bounce. We didn’t quite test down to the
1710 level and we still might but right now we look to be in recovery
I NEED to have an expectation
to set up my trade. Bearish market and
February is the second worst month in the market historically. I am not looking for an exact number but I
would expect a drop to test 1710 and maybe a finish at or slightly above
1750ish. The “ish” means around give or
take an many numbers as I need to add or subtract to be close.
1800 or higher –
would expect 10 points plus or minus from this level
1700 or lower
What is on tap for the
rest of the week?=
CF, LNG, DUK, FLS, FLR, HLF,
MDT, PNRA, KO, WM
CAR, CROX, DENN, DVN, GRMN,
MDRX, COG, DTV, ESRX, GRMN, HPQ,
MRVL, JWN, NEM, VMI, WMT
Tues: Empire, Net
Long Term TIC Flows, NAHB Housing Market Index,
Wed: MBA, Building
Permits, Housing Starts, PPI, Core PPI, FOMC Minutes,
Thur: Initial Claims,
Continuing Claims, Leading Indicators, CPI, Core CPI, Phil Fed
Existing Home Sales
Tues – JP: All
Wed – GB:
BOE Minutes, JP: Merchandise Trade, CN: PMI Flash Manufacturing Index,
Thurs – DE:FR:EMU: PMI
Friday – GB: Retail
Sales, Public Sector Finances
How I am looking to
Taking money from long
puts or protective puts and rolling short calls up. Remember the trend is your friend until it
isn’t. I am long stocks and bullish in
my individual trades as:
NVDA – I protected the shares of Nvidia and
some of the long bullish calls. I’ve
adjusted the long puts which was my downside protection. I’ve added $17.00 short puts, took a profit
and now have $18.00 short puts. If those
short March 18 puts expire worthless I make a profit on the downside protection
that I had in place thru earnings.
FB – Facebook looks a
lot like NVDA. I am shorting against the
long puts and I’ve already taken profits twice on short puts. Again I will be profitable on the protection
to get me through the earnings on Facebook.
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