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HI Financial Services Mid-Week 07-15-2014

HI Financial Services Mid-Week 07-15-2014

“Just wondering when we are going to have a 20% correction.  But, we still have stimulus in the system so I wouldn’t really expect a pullback until the beginning of next year. “  – Kevin Hurley

 

What has been happening so far this week?

           We are fighting to move higher.  After the last week of light volume we are into the swing of earnings.  We are back above 17,000 on the DJIA!!  We had Yellen speak to us moving our market down on very positive comments in general which is a little ridiculous.  Welcome to the building of a base at a round number on the DJIA and expect the same to come on 2000 on the S&P and 4500 on the COMP Nasdaq index. 

 

Where will our market end this week?

          I am expecting a flat week to very slightly up week in general.  My thought process is based on a better than expected earnings and the move higher in the financial sector.  This week is the first week of the big financials. Next week is usually the 2nd and last week of financials with four weeks of the S&P 500 reporting (86%).  Expectations are low, BUT we have more reasons to go bearish than bullish. 

 

Bearish Reasons:

Seasonal Summer Doldrums – July is the most volatile month since the 1950’s

DJIA YTD +2.89%,       S&P 500 ytd +6.92%,          Nasdaq COMP 6.2%

No Correction for 33 months with only one 7% pullback

Ending of QE to infinity and beyond

Fear of rising Interest rates

 

Bullish Reasons to go higher:

Better than expected earnings

Money Supply or stimulus still in the system that has an expected push 6 months to 2 years out in time. 

Market still isn’t at full valuation

My belief is the growth in the economy is still coming the last half of the year

Q1 = -2.9 and Q2 est on May 29th = – 1.0 which means the second half has to be 7.0 to meet expectations of 3%

 

DJIA– Still bullish with a little pullback which usually indicates another leg up.  We are testing the 17,000 Dow “round number” mark yet again and expect another couple of tests in the next couple of weeks.  Higher highs and higher lows

 

Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 06.11 PM

SPX – Melting up higher with higher highs and higher lows

  Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 06.33 PM

COMP – Building a base at 4400 and holding 4350 as support

Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 06.34 PM

Where Will the SPX end July 2014?

07-15-2014

We are still testing 17,000 so I am standing by my expectation on July 1st.

 

07-08-2014 

I think we are going to test the 2000 on the SPX and test 17,000 on the DJIA.  We might be slightly higher but I would say a 1% up month. 

 

07-01-2014

My guess is 2000 on SPX, 17,100 on the DJIA and 4500 on the COMP

 

What is on tap for the rest of the week?=

Earnings:

Tues:          CSX, GS, JNJ, JPM, INTC, YHOO 

Wed:          SNDK, ABT, BLK, EBAY, KMI, USB, YUM

Thur:         AMD, GOOG, MS, SLB, GWW, UNH

Fri:             HON, GE, VFC

  

Econ Reports

Tues:  Retail Sales, Retail ex-auto, Empire, Export, Import, Business Inventory

Wed:  MBA, PPI, Core PPI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Net TIC Flows, NAHB Housing Index, Fed Beige Book

Thur: Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Phil Fed

Fri:     Michigan Sentiment, Leading Indicators – OPTIONS EXPIRATION

 

Int’l:

Tues –  

Wed –   GB: Labour Market Report  

Thurs – EMU: HICP, JP: BOJ MPB Minutes  

Friday –

Sunday –  

 

How I am looking to trade?

I have let stocks run and now I am in the process of protecting stocks for this earnings season.

I am only looking out two weeks to start to collar or protect those stocks before their earnings.

 

That means you need to build you earnings list

AAPL         7/22 AMC

BIDU          7/24 AMC

BBY           8/26 BMO

CLDX        8/6 est

D                8/6 est

DIS             8/5 AMC

F                 7/24 BMO

FB              7/23 AMC

LNCO        8/7 BMO

MEI            8/28 est

MS             7/17 BMO

MU             10/09

NVDA        8/7 est

SBUX         7/24 AMC

SNDK        7/16 AMC

SLB            7/17 AMC

TSLA         8/6 est

V                7/24 AMC

VZ              7/22 BMO

ZION         7/21 AMC

 

AAPL – I’m ready on AAPL but I can add some shares.  Not sure if I want to do that before or after earnings. 

 Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 05.57 PM 001

BIDU – Already 100% plus return

  Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 05.57 PM

DIS – Just sitting in shares and with the movie Frozen revenue, summer park revenue, I plan on protecting with OTM Long puts at maybe $85

 

F – Protecting profits and I’m not sure if they will  have good earnings based on monthly channel check and auto reports

 Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 05.58 PM

NVDA – Have previous earning puts still on that ecpire on Friday and Have Sept long puts in place for earnings

Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 05.58 PM 001

V – Have OTM Aug 215 long puts to run thru earnings

 Screen Shot 07-15-14 at 05.58 PM 002

Questions???

 

Blogsite down until Monday.  GoDaddy stopped using blogspot so I am transferring everything to word press

 

 

www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite

customerservice@hurleyinvestments.com = Email

 

Article Links can be followed by being a twitter follower

 
Why the Dow hitting 17,000 actually matters

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-dow-hitting-17-000-135355079.html?soc_src=mediacontentsharebuttons

 

Investors eye correction after summer ‘melt-up’

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101836933

 

Will earnings tell the story markets need to hear?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101830246

 

Dow 101: The Dow and how it works

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/07/03/dow-101-the-dow-and-how-it-works/12182207/

 

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