HI Financial Services Mid-Week Commentary 01-12-2016
Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards. Soren Kierkegaard
Let’s talk about the start of the year – today the stock market is down about 5% and it was down last Friday 6%
Worst start in History or worst first week in the history of the stock market
WHY? China, Tax selling for the year 2016, Oil, Better Job news which can lead to more interest rate hikes.
Asset allocations models, Harry Markowitz models, traditional mutual funds ALL Offer no protection,
AND You shouldn’t have any money with these type of investments.
I cashed in BIDU, AAPL, DIS, V long puts over the last 3 trading days and I’m ready for earnings
Collar Trade allows for mistakes, protection and the ability to dollar cost average without having to find more money.
What’s happening this week and why?
Two up days and better than expected Jolts numbers but nothing matters until the end of the week.
Where will our market end this week?
3% higher for the week
DJIA – three technical crossovers to the bearish side but we are OVER-sold
SPX – three technical crossovers to the bearish side but we are OVER-sold
COMP – three technical crossovers to the bearish side but we are OVER-sold
Where Will the SPX end January 2016?
01-12-2016 Down 5%
01-07-2016 Down 5%
What is on tap for the rest of the week?=
Tues: CSX, FUL
Thur: JPM, INTC
Fri: BLK, C, USB, WFC, RNC
Tues: Jolts Job Openings,
Wed: MBA, Fed Beige Book, Treasury Budget
Thur: Initial, Continuing Claims, Import, Export
Fri: Retail Sales, Retail ex-auto, Empire Manufacturing, PPI, Core PPI, Michigan Sentiment, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, OPTIONS EXPIRATION
Tues – GB: Industrial Production, CN: Merchandise Trade Balance
How I am looking to trade?
Protective puts and collars to get me through an earnings season
Will leave in place if market goes down.
Will roll long puts to at the money for the earnings
Long Puts are out to Feb and March
Short calls on March and April
www.myhurleyinvestment.com = Blogsite
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