{"id":2290,"date":"2025-05-28T03:59:26","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T03:59:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/?p=2290"},"modified":"2025-05-28T03:59:27","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T03:59:27","slug":"hi-market-view-commentary-05-27-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/?p=2290","title":{"rendered":"HI Market View Commentary 05-27-2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><u>HI Market View Commentary 05-27-2025<\/u><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"HI Market View Commentary  05-27-2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cTlH6KIvwxA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Let\u2019s review the Short call for some of you who asked questions about that option the last couple of weeks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Short Call = The Obligation to sell a stock at a certain price for a certain period of time.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Some of you were worried about having your stock called away.&nbsp; What do you do if you do not want the stock called away?=Buy it back, or roll it up and out in time for a net credit, let it go and buy back in with a stock replacement leap long call ( it should only use profits), buy to close it<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>YOU HAVE TO USE THE TOOLS THAT PROPERLY FIT THE TREND OF THE STOCK<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The art of Trump \u2013 big talk and the backtrack\/negotiate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Our concern is when does he get ticked off and let those tariffs run ?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bonds vs Stocks = Stocks have a better opportunity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bonds = 0% to 1% for ten years that\u2019s 100% tax free<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Are we in so much debt that we are going to lose our reserve currency status?= A basket of currencies would kill the USA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Thoughts on Harvard International Students ? The money and what the students did?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Can you blame Harvard for taking free money?-NOPE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>IF the students singed a pledge for hating America, voiced the need to NOT protect the Isreal Country, Voiced and protecsted the USA\/Trump?US Programs?+ IF they hate it here so much = Send them home.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1<sup>st<\/sup> Amendment right = protects freedom of religion, speech, press, assembly, and petition.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>They protect freedoms =<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Your thoughts?=Dumb, stupid,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For this year it\u2019s going to be a roller coaster<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Big movements on news, earnings, rate cuts, tax breaks,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Will are still in Mag7 \/ Rich Tech \/ Gig Balance sheet stocks because they DON\u2019T need to borrow<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>Earnings<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>MU&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 06\/25&nbsp; AMC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>NVDA&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 05\/28&nbsp; AMC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/the-big-picture\">https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/the-big-picture<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>The Big Picture<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Last Updated: 23-May-25 17:13 ET |&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/the-big-picture\/archive\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Archive<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Treasury market will tell the stock market where to go<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Column Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>*Rising U.S. debt and deficits are pushing Treasury yields higher, raising investor concerns.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>*Higher yields challenge stock valuations and make borrowing costlier for companies and consumers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>*Stronger earnings growth is needed to justify current stock valuations amid rising rates.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>We have stressed often that earnings trends drive the stock market. When earnings are trending higher, the stock market tends to follow. When earnings are trending lower, the stock market may not follow that trend in direct lockstep, but it often gets locked on valuation concerns that interrupt its upward momentum and invite lower prices.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>There may just be a new sheriff in town, though, dictating where the stock market goes. That would be the Treasury market.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Feeling Uncomfortable<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U.S. Treasuries are deemed to be risk-free securities since they are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States of America, which is the steward of the world&#8217;s reserve currency. There have been some rumbles recently, however, about how risk-free U.S. Treasuries really are.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Moody&#8217;s downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa from Aaa, citing concerns about the increase in government debt and interest payment ratios hitting levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns. It should be noted that the Moody&#8217;s downgrade came years after Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s and Fitch Ratings also cut their triple-A ratings for the U.S. In other words, the Moody&#8217;s downgrade wasn&#8217;t so much a shock in terms of its review of the U.S. fiscal situation as it was in terms of its timing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>It came in the midst of the House negotiating a reconciliation bill that some forecasting firms suggested could add as much as $5 trillion to the government&#8217;s budget deficit over the next 10 years. The House ultimately passed the reconciliation bill in a 215-214 party-line vote, sending it over to the Senate for consideration. The Congressional Budget Office said that, before accounting for interactions, the House&#8217;s version would add $2.3 trillion to deficits over the next decade and estimates it would add $3.1 trillion to the debt as it is written.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Buyers of Treasuries haven&#8217;t felt entirely comfortable with such forecasts and have started to demand a higher term premium &#8212; nothing exorbitant, mind you, but higher as they recognize more of the government&#8217;s budget will need to be allocated to paying the interest on the U.S. debt, which currently stands at $36.9 trillion, or 123% of nominal GDP.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Time Will Tell<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The 10-yr note yield, which stood at 4.00% in early April, recently went as high as 4.63%. It currently stands at 4.50%, which is actually seven basis points less than when the year began.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>That is an important distinction when it comes to tempering just how fearful the market has been about the budget negotiations, but the trend matters, and there is a nervous tension in the market that it is going to continue higher since it isn&#8217;t at all clear that the U.S. government&#8217;s fiscal trajectory will improve soon.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The counterargument is that the tax-friendly provisions of the reconciliation bill will ignite increased growth that makes up the deficit gap with increased tax revenues resulting from the stronger growth.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Only time will tell if that is the case, but rest assured the Treasury market will be keeping time, and the stock market is going to know if it is time for the U.S. government to make a more concerted effort to get its spending under control.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How will it know? Treasury yields will head higher in an unhinged fashion with so-called &#8220;bond vigilantes&#8221; selling their positions and\/or balking at buying new supply that lacks, in their judgment, an adequate term premium.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Briefing.com Analyst Insight<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This is a situation that could play out slowly over time or happen suddenly. With moves in Treasury yields, it isn&#8217;t always the level that stirs the stock market, as it is the pace of change. To that end, 4.50% is not a &#8220;high&#8221; yield, but considering it is up 50 basis points since early April, it has caused a stir that has slowed the stock market&#8217;s recovery momentum. In the same vein, the 30-yr bond yield of 5.03% is not &#8220;high&#8221; either, but it is also up 60 basis points since early April.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><\/strong><strong><br>Source: FactSet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The stir is that these yields for risk-free securities are creating increased competition for stocks, which are not risk-free, and which have pushed the market cap-weighted S&amp;P 500&#8217;s valuation back to a lofty 21.2x forward twelve-month earnings. That is a 16% premium to the 10-year average, according to FactSet &#8212; a premium that will demand stronger earnings growth to sustain.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><\/strong><strong><br>Source: FactSet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>That will be an increasingly challenging proposition if rates continue to rise, making it more expensive for companies to finance their debt and more onerous for consumers to take on new debt and\/or to service existing debt with a variable rate structure. In the end, this all gets back to earnings driving the stock market.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Interest rates matter, and they are at risk of rising further if inflation rates start to accelerate due to the tariff actions and\/or changes to the reconciliation bill by the Senate increase deficit forecasts.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>That could be a problem for the stock market and the U.S. government, particularly if the Treasury market thinks it is a problem.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>&#8212;<a href=\"mailto:pohare@briefing.com?subject=The%20Big%20Picture\"><em>Patrick J. O&#8217;Hare, Briefing.com<\/em><\/a><\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Where will<\/strong><strong> our markets end this week?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lower<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DJIA \u2013 Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"766\" src=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-1024x766.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2294\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-1024x766.gif 1024w, https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-300x225.gif 300w, https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-768x575.gif 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SPX \u2013 Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"766\" src=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-1-1024x766.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2295\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-1-1024x766.gif 1024w, https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-1-300x225.gif 300w, https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-1-768x575.gif 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>COMP \u2013 Bullish<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"766\" src=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-2-1024x766.gif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2296\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-2-1024x766.gif 1024w, https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-2-300x225.gif 300w, https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-2-768x575.gif 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Where Will the SPX end May 2025?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>05-27-2025&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; +2.0%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>05-19-2025&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; +2.0%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>05-12-2025 &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; +2.0%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>05-05-2025&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; +1.0%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>Earnings:<\/u><\/strong><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mon:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tues:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; AZO,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Wed:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; ANF, DKS, M, HPQ, NDSN, NVDA, CRM<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Thur:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BBY, BURL, FL, KSS, AEO, DELL, GAP, MRVL, NTAP, ULTA, COST<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fri: &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>Econ Reports<\/u><\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mon:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tue&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Durable Goods, Durable Goods ex-trans, FHFA Housing Price Index, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Wed: &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; MBA,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Thur: &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Initial Claims, Continuing Claims,&nbsp;&nbsp; GDP, GDP Deflator, Pending Home Sales<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fri:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; PCE Prices, PCE Core, Michigan Sentiment, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How am I looking to trade?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mostly letting things run as we have since companies\u2019 earnings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.myhurleyinvestment.com\">www.myhurleyinvestment.com<\/a><strong> = Blogsite<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"mailto:info@hurleyinvestments.com\">info@hurleyinvestments.com<\/a><strong>&nbsp;= Email<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Questions???<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/21\/republican-spending-bill-driving-up-yields-and-creating-a-major-headache.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/21\/republican-spending-bill-driving-up-yields-and-creating-a-major-headache.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>The Republican spending bill is sending yields soaring and creating a major market headache<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published Wed, May 21 20253:54 PM EDTUpdated Thu, May 22 20257:41 AM EDT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/jeff-cox\/\">Jeff Cox<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/jeff.cox.7528\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@jeff.cox.7528<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JeffCoxCNBCcom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@JeffCoxCNBCcom<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The U.S. debt-and-deficit situation is bad and facing real prospects of getting worse. Whether the recoil in financial markets continues is largely in the hands of policymakers.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>What it\u2019s meant in market terms has been a severe leg up in Treasury yields and a sell-off in stocks.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u201cI feel like the dam is finally starting to break a little bit, and there\u2019s too many holes in the dike to put our fingers in,\u201d said Mitch Goldberg, president of ClientFirst Strategy.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The U.S. debt-and-deficit situation is bad and facing real prospects of getting worse, triggering a high-profile credit rating downgrade from Moody\u2019s and another selling stampede in stocks and bonds.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Whether the recoil in financial markets continues is largely in the hands of policymakers who seem intent on adding to the U.S. fiscal problems in the name of stimulating growth through President Donald Trump\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/21\/trump-tax-bill-house-vote.html\">\u201cbig, beautiful\u201d spending bill<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For now, Wall Street experts are not optimistic about what happens from here.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cMoody\u2019s didn\u2019t tell us anything we didn\u2019t already know, but they did underscore that things aren\u2019t going in the right direction,\u201d said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. \u201cThe \u2018big, beautiful bill\u2019 also, when it comes to debt and deficits, is not going in the right direction.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The result, Jones said, is that the U.S. is likely to add to its $36.2 trillion debt load, of which $28.9 trillion is directly held by the public. Tax cuts that aren\u2019t matched with less spending or higher growth would also pressure the budget deficit, which is heading toward 7% of gross domestic product.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The bond market is in the driver seat for the equity market, says Charles Schwab\u2019s Liz Ann Sonders<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Moody\u2019s Ratings on Friday&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/19\/what-moodys-downgrade-of-us-credit-rating-means-for-your-money.html?&amp;amp;qsearchterm=moody%27s\">cut U.S. debt<\/a>&nbsp;from its top rating, though it changed the outlook from negative to stable. The agency cited unresolved \u201clarge annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs\u201d as the reason behind the move, though it did not specifically mention the House spending bill.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Add to that trade tensions the U.S. has initiated with Japan and China, the largest and third-largest foreign holders of Treasury debt, and it makes for a market headache.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cYou put all that together, and the market is increasing that risk premium for long-term bonds,\u201d Jones said. \u201cThere is a global repricing in a world where there\u2019s just more sovereign debt and a lot more uncertainty about whether policies are going to adjust to make that look attractive.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Jump in yields<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What it\u2019s meant in market terms has been a severe leg up in Treasury yields, particularly in longer-denominated debt such as the 10-year note and 30-year bond. Investors are demanding higher yields as compensation for the risk they are taking holding U.S. debt.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In normal times, Treasurys are considered risk-free investments as there is virtually zero risk the U.S. ever would default. However, rising worries about the fiscal situation and a resurgence in inflation from tariffs \u2014 not to mention the Moody\u2019s downgrade \u2014 are forcing yields higher.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>30-year yield over the past five days<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>With the deficit heading to 6.5%-7% of GDP, that is \u201cinconsistent with debt-to-GDP stability over the long run,\u201d Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a client note. \u201cAbsent a clearer commitment towards putting deficits on a downward path, investor concerns about U.S. fiscal dynamics are likely to persist.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How much the budget will get stretched is dependent on the final package that gets through Congress. House Republicans on Thursday&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/22\/trump-tax-bill-passes-the-house-advances-to-senate.html\">passed their version of the 1,000-page spending bill<\/a>&nbsp;that preserves much of the Trump\u2019s pet items while adding come concessions to GOP deficit hawks.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The version that heads to the Senate makes the 2017 tax cuts stay and eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. Markets believe that with only partial revenue offsets, will aggravate the fiscal problems, even though advocates of the bill insist that economic growth will make up for any direct tax losses.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cIf [the bill] fails, the financial markets won\u2019t be happy. But if it passes \u2014 well, that might be just as problematic,\u201d wrote Ed Yardeni, head of Yardeni Research. \u201cWhy? Because budget deficits matter. That\u2019s especially so when they lead to higher interest rates, higher bond yields and potentially higher inflation. We suspect the Bond Vigilantes already anticipate this.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stocks also under pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Long yields continued their march higher Thursday morning, with the 30-year bond hitting 5.13%, its highest since October 2023 and an area where it hasn\u2019t traded consistently since the early part of the century. The 10-year note, used as a benchmark for a wide range of debt, from auto loans to mortgages, topped 4.6% on Wednesday, its highest since February.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The market damage, though, hasn\u2019t been limited to fixed income, nor has it been confined to the U.S.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>10-year yield in past five days<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stocks&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/20\/stock-market-today-live-updates.html\">also have come under pressure<\/a>&nbsp;as investor nervousness grows over how higher interest rates will pressure corporate profit margins, raise borrowing costs and slow consumer spending. After easing somewhat from 7% earlier this year, 30-year mortgage rates are climbing again, most recently at 6.81%, according to Fannie Mae.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bond yields also are rising globally. The 30-year Japanese government bond yield is at a record high as worries over fiscal stability spread.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cI feel like the dam is finally starting to break a little bit, and there\u2019s too many holes in the dike to put our fingers in,\u201d said Mitch Goldberg, president of ClientFirst Strategy. \u201cThe issue is that if the cost of debt financing keeps going up, we\u2019re going to find ourselves in a time of austerity, kind of like the European Union was about 10 years ago.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For equity investors, the changing dynamics of a deglobalizing economy likely mean permanently higher interest rates, potentially slower economic growth and a complicated market picture.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cWe\u2019re going to be facing 20% plus moves more frequently in the stock market,\u201d Goldberg said. \u201cIt\u2019s not just a new debt financing regime we\u2019re facing. It\u2019s a whole new global economy regime.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/24\/these-oversold-stocks-could-be-due-for-a-pop-after-this-weeks-market-declines.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/24\/these-oversold-stocks-could-be-due-for-a-pop-after-this-weeks-market-declines.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>These oversold stocks could be due for a pop after this week\u2019s market declines<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published Sat, May 24 20258:42 AM EDT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pia-singh\/\">Pia Singh<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/linkedin.com\/in\/piasingh72\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@in\/piasingh72\/<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pia_singh_\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@pia_singh_<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/INTU\">INTU+18.71\u00a0(+2.60%)<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/GEV\">GEV+6.53\u00a0(+1.41%)<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/CAG\">CAG+0.41\u00a0(+1.81%)<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/KHC\">KHC+0.37\u00a0(+1.41%)<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stocks that investors dumped this week could make a comeback, according to one popular metric.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>All three of the major averages dropped more than 2% this week. On Friday, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.SPX\/\">S&amp;P 500<\/a>&nbsp;posted a fourth consecutive losing session and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.DJI\/\">Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/a>&nbsp;lost more than 250 points after President Donald Trump&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/23\/trump-recommends-50percent-tariff-on-european-union-starting-june-1.html\">called for a 50% duty<\/a>&nbsp;on the European Union and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/23\/trump-tariff-apple-iphones-not-made-in-the-us.html\">threatened 25% tariffs<\/a>&nbsp;on Apple for iPhones that are made outside the U.S.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Although volatility remains in the market, one widely used technical analysis metric indicates that certain stocks look oversold after this week\u2019s losses and could be due for a near-term bounce.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Using the CNBC Pro&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pro-stock-screener\/\">stock screener tool<\/a>, we identified the most oversold and overbought stocks this week by their 14-day relative strength index. A result below 30 suggests a stock could be oversold and see gains ahead, while an RSI above 70 indicates that a stock is overbought and could trade lower.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Take a look at the oversold names below:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>WALL STREET\u2019S MOST OVERSOLD STOCKS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Symbol&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Company&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>RSI&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Analyst Consensus&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Upside to avg PT (%)&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>UNH<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>UnitedHealth Group<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>22.3<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>33.6<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>CPRT<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Copart<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>27.2<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>16.6<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>KMX<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Carmax<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>27.5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>33.5<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>CAG<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Conagra Brands<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>29.3<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Hold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>20.2<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>FICO<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Fair Isaac<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>29.5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>34.4<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>CPB<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Campbell\u2019s<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>29.6<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Hold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>23.3<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>KHC<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Kraft Heinz<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>29.7<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Hold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>16.3<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><br><em>Source:&nbsp;LSEG<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A handful of consumer packaged goods giants are now considered oversold.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/KHC\/\">Kraft Heinz<\/a>, the maker of Heinz ketchup and Kraft macaroni and cheese, made the list with an RSI of 29.7. The stock lost 5% this week, bringing its year-to-date losses to 14%. Still, analysts have a consensus hold rating and a price target that suggests 16% upside ahead.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Earlier this month, Reuters reported that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/14\/ketchup-maker-kraft-heinz-investing-3-billion-upgrading-us-manufacturing.html\">Kraft is spending $3 billion to upgrade its U.S. factories<\/a>, its largest investment in its plants in a decade, in order to defend its market share. The news came even as the company has cut its sales and profit forecasts.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/CAG\/\">Conagra Brands<\/a>&nbsp;and Campbell\u2019s are also considered oversold with an RSI of 29.3 and 29.6, respectively. Conagra dropped more than 2% this week, while Campbell\u2019s slid 5.7%. Analysts\u2019 price targets call for more than 20% upside for both stocks.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In early May, Conagra&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.conagrabrands.com\/news-room\/news-conagra-brands-enters-into-definitive-agreement-with-hometown-food-company-a-brynwood-partners-portfolio-company-to-divest-the-chef-boyardeer-brand-prn-122920\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">announced an agreement<\/a>&nbsp;with Hometown Food Company to divest its Chef Boyardee product line for $600 million in cash.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Other oversold stocks include&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/KMX\/\">Carmax<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/UNH\/\">UnitedHealth<\/a>, which was was the most oversold stock last week. UnitedHealth\u2019s RSI of roughly 22 this week is a step up from its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/17\/these-stocks-including-unitedhealth-became-the-most-oversold-names-this-week.html\">reading of 14.9<\/a>&nbsp;last week, but the stock remains under pressure and is down more than 41% year to date.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Here are this week\u2019s overbought stocks:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>WALL STREET\u2019S MOST OVERBOUGHT STOCKS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Symbol&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Company&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>RSI&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Analyst Consensus&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Up\/downside to avg PT (%)&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>GEV<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>GE Vernova<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>81.6<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-11.2<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>MOS<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Mosaic<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>79.5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>8.8<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>INTU<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Intuit<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>77.7<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-2.1<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>STX<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Seagate Technology Holdings<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>77.7<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-0.3<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>NRG<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>NRG Energy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>77.3<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-1.3<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>WDC<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Western Digital<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>77.1<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>15.4<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>CF<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>CF Industries Holdings<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>76.8<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Hold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>0.8<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>CTVA<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Corteva<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>76.1<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>5.5<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>JCI<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Johnson Controls International<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>75.6<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>3.1<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>GE<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>GE Aerospace<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>75.4<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>-2.3<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><br><em>Source:&nbsp;LSEG<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/GEV\/\">GE Vernova<\/a>&nbsp;is the most overbought of the group with an RSI of 81.6. Shares of the energy equipment manufacturing company jumped 8.5% this week. It has surged 41% this year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>CNBC\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/22\/jim-cramer-explains-why-ge-vernovas-stock-is-climbing.html\">Jim Cramer said this week<\/a>&nbsp;that GE Vernova is \u201cat the heart of every major power trend there is,\u201d except for solar, and that the company could stand to benefit from hyperscalers\u2019 power-hungry artificial intelligence tech developments. Big Tech data centers could eventually be powered by GE Vernova\u2019s natural gas turbines, Cramer said.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>To be sure, analysts covering the stock think GE Vernova appears overvalued, and could see a decline of 11% from current levels.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Other overbought stocks this week are&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/INTU\/\">Intuit<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/NRG\/\">NRG Energy<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/GE\/\">GE Aerospace<\/a>. Tax software giant Intuit, which has an RSI of more than 77, saw its stock pop 8% on Friday after the company<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/23\/intuit-shares-pop-9percent-on-earnings-beat-rosy-guidance.html\">&nbsp;posted strong quarterly results<\/a>&nbsp;and guidance. Intuit posted a weekly gain of 7.4%, and it\u2019s up more than 14% in 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>China\u2019s economy stumbles as it fails to shake off Trump\u2019s tariff gut punch<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"160\" height=\"90\" src=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2292\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycallernewsfoundation.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New economic data shows key Chinese industries continuing to struggle in the wake of President Donald Trump\u2019s reciprocal tariffs.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Retail sales, which&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/CNRSCYOY:IND\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">track<\/a>&nbsp;the sale of new and used goods to the general public, slowed to 5.1% in April, missing official projections for a 5.5% expansion, according to numbers from China\u2019s National Statistics Bureau&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/chinas-april-factory-output-retail-sales-growth-slow-2025-05-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reviewed<\/a>&nbsp;by Reuters. China\u2019s industrial output fell to 6.1%, down from 7.7% the month before, as tariffs keep&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/chinas-economic-activity-slowed-in-april-e58d8bd6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">biting<\/a>&nbsp;Chinese factories.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Following Trump\u2019s tariffs taking effect, 16 million Chinese jobs were put at risk of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2025-04-29\/china-s-tariff-fight-divides-elites-and-blue-collar-workers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">vanishing,<\/a>&nbsp;leading&nbsp;to layoffs and worker&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/05\/01\/china-erupts-riot-factories-trump-tariffs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">protests<\/a>. Even though recent talks led to Tariffs being&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/04\/09\/trump-sends-markets-soaring-with-big-tariff-announcement\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lowered<\/a>&nbsp;from 145% to 30% over the next 90 days to allow for further trade talks, experts say China\u2019s economy is not likely to rebound quickly.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cWhen you increase the tariffs to such a high level, many companies decide to stop hiring and to start basically sending the workers back home,\u201d Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at investment bank Natixis,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/world-at-work\/tariff-cuts-ease-mass-china-layoffs-threat-job-market-pain-persists-2025-05-16\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">told<\/a>&nbsp;Reuters.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>She estimated that if the tariffs were raised back to April\u2019s level, China\u2019s economy could slow by as much as 2.5%. Even in a best-case scenario, China\u2019s economic growth is likely to stall.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cAt 30%, I doubt they will say, okay, come back. Because it\u2019s still high,\u201d she added. \u201cMaybe the Chinese government is saying, wow, this was amazing. But I think many companies are not sure that this is going to work.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A policy advisor who spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity echoed that sentiment, calling the deal a \u201cwin for China.\u201d They did suggest, however, that there would be issues with the country\u2019s economic outlook.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201dIt\u2019s difficult to do business at 30%,\u201d the adviser added. \u201cOver time, it will be a burden on China\u2019s economic development.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>President Trump initially imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which reached 30% in early April, per a graph created by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/04\/12\/business\/us-china-tariffs-trump-timeline-dg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CNN<\/a>. China&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/04\/09\/china-fires-back-in-trump-trade-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">responded<\/a>&nbsp;with tariffs on American products like oil and natural gas after the U.S. raised tariffs to 104%. After China&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/04\/09\/trump-sends-markets-soaring-with-big-tariff-announcement\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">imposed<\/a>&nbsp;a higher 125% tariff on all American goods, President Trump&nbsp;raised&nbsp;tariffs on China to 145%. Shortly thereafter, China\u2019s economy&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/04\/30\/china-economy-trump-tarriff-onslaught\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">began<\/a>&nbsp;to slow.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>China\u2019s export industry saw new orders&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2025\/05\/09\/does-team-trump-winning-hand-china-trade-talks\/?ref=tippinsights.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">drop<\/a>&nbsp;to their lowest level since 2022, while cargo shipments to the U.S. collapsed by 60%. The services sector hit a seven-month low, and China\u2019s six largest banks reported that profits in the first quarter of 2025 were down almost $2 billion from the same time last year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Chinese authorities have&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/china-economy-data-missing-096cac9a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stopped<\/a>&nbsp;publishing a wide range of key indicators in the last several years, including data on land sales, unemployment, and foreign investment, meaning the true numbers are probably much worse, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. Hundreds of previously available metrics have quietly disappeared, usually without explanation, the Journal reports.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A well-known Chinese economist said publicly last year that China\u2019s economic growth was much lower than what the Chinese Communist Party claimed. Chinese President Xi Jinping&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/china\/xi-jinping-muzzles-chinese-economist-who-dared-to-doubt-gdp-numbers-2a2468ef?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ordered<\/a>&nbsp;that he be disciplined, and he has not spoken publicly since, the Journal reported.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/20\/bernstein-raises-its-price-target-on-this-stock-with-a-history-of-momentum.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/20\/bernstein-raises-its-price-target-on-this-stock-with-a-history-of-momentum.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>Bernstein raises its price target on this stock with a \u2018history of momentum\u2019<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published Tue, May 20 20256:59 AM EDT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/pia-singh\/\">Pia Singh<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/linkedin.com\/in\/piasingh72\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@in\/piasingh72\/<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pia_singh_\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@pia_singh_<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FILE &#8211; A 13-year-old private Boeing aircraft that President Donald Trump toured on Saturday to check out new hardware and technology features, and highlight the aircraft maker\u2019s delay in delivering updated versions of the Air Force One presidential aircraft, takes off from Palm Beach International Airport, Feb. 16, 2025, in West Palm Beach, Fla.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Ben Curtis | AP<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bernstein is doubling down on its bullish outlook on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/BA\/\">Boeing<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Analyst Douglas Harned maintained his outperform rating on Boeing shares and assigned a fresh price target of $249, up from $218. His new target suggests roughly 21% upside for the stock, which is up 16% this year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Harned sees a strong growth runway for Boeing and said its defense business could return to being a powerful cash generator. He also highlighted recent developments such as Boeing\u2019s restart of deliveries to China, its deal with Qatar Airways&nbsp;announced last week to provide up to 210&nbsp;widebody&nbsp;jets and easing tariff concerns.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cPositive events support the stock\u2019s upward momentum,\u201d the analyst wrote in a Monday note to clients. \u201cLast week, we saw large new widebody orders, a restart of deliveries to China, and support for defense programs, raising our confidence in Boeing\u2019s growth path. There is still more upside potential.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cNone of this is without risk, given Boeing\u2019s many missteps over the last decade. But, as positive elements appear to line up, we believe there is more risk in not owning a stock with a history of momentum,\u201d Harned added.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>To be sure, the analyst still has concerns about seemingly light May 737 deliveries so far and timing for certification on Boeing\u2019s 737 Max 7 and Max 10 aircrafts.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Boeing Co<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/BA\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/BA\">BA<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ANALYST CONSENSUS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>29<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ratings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Buy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>8&nbsp;Strong&nbsp;Buy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>12&nbsp;Buy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>8&nbsp;Hold<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1&nbsp;Underperform<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>0&nbsp;Sell<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Current PriceLast updated |&nbsp;11:36 AM EDT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>202.10<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>-0.26&nbsp;(-0.13%)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Highest Price Target<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>256.24<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Average Price Target<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>213.40<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Upside&nbsp;(5.38%)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Lowest Price Target<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>140.00<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Harned\u2019s rating comes nearly a month after he upgraded Boeing to outperform from market perform. The analyst had cited Boeing\u2019s progress on 737 Max and 787 production ramps, improvement in defense performance, and strong cash position that outweighed concerns of tariff impacts as his reasoning for the upgrade.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Analysts polled by LSEG have an average price target on Boeing shares that indicate just 1% potential upside. Twenty of the 29 covering the stock have a strong buy or buy rating.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/26\/la-wildfires-insurance-firms-like-munich-re-swiss-re-take-3point5-billion-hit.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/26\/la-wildfires-insurance-firms-like-munich-re-swiss-re-take-3point5-billion-hit.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>European insurance giants take $3.5 billion hit from Los Angeles wildfires \u2014 beating estimates<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published Sun, May 25 20257:10 PM EDTUpdated 5 Hours Ago<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/ganesh-rao\/\">Ganesh Rao<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/@_GaneshRao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@_GaneshRao<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Financial losses stemming from the California wildfires earlier this year have risen to at least $3.5 billion for European insurance giants, according to CNBC\u2019s calculations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The insured losses, mainly from reinsurance claims, are being borne by 10 large, listed firms in Europe, mainly centered in Germany, the U.K., Switzerland and France.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>LA wildfires cost European insurers $3.5 billion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Ticker<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Company<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Cost, millions (USD)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>MUV2-DE<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Munich Re<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1,244.74<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>HNR1-DE<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Hannover Re<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>714.30<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>SREN-CH<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Swiss Re<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>630.00<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>ZURN-CH<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Zurich Insurance Group<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>200.00<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>HSX-GB<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Hiscox<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>170.00<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>SCR-FR<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>SCOR<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>167.48<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>LRE-GB<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Lancashire<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>145.00<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>CRE-GB<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Conduit Holdings<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>100.00<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>CS-FR<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>AXA<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>100.00<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>BEZ-GB<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Beazley<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>80.00<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><br><em>Source:&nbsp;CNBC, Company Filings<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Germany-listed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/MUV2-DE\/\">Munich Re<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/HNR1-DE\/\">Hannover Re<\/a>, two of the largest reinsurance firms, together booked&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/13\/la-wildfires-cost-german-reinsurers-1point9-billion-in-first-quarter.html\">nearly $2 billion in losses<\/a>. Switzerland-listed firms Swiss Re and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/ZUR.N-CH\/\">Zurich<\/a>&nbsp;collectively reported $830 million in hits.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>London-listed companies&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/HSX-GB\/\">Hiscox<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/LRE-GB\/\">Lancashire Insurance<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/undefined\/\">Conduit Re<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/BEZ-GB\/\">Beazley<\/a>&nbsp;reported losses of amounting to nearly $500 million.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>French companies&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/SDRC-DE\/\">Scor<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/CS-FR\/\">AXA<\/a>&nbsp;also reported $167 million and $100 million losses, respectively.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The total hit far&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/01\/13\/la-fires-could-hit-european-insurance-firms-with-billion-euros-in-loss.html\">exceeds the billion dollars expected<\/a>&nbsp;from analysts in the immediate aftermath of the wildfires. While the total economic loss due to the disaster was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/01\/08\/los-angeles-wildfire-economic-loss-estimates-top-50-billion.html\">expected to be around $50 billion<\/a>, JPMorgan analysts had expected insured losses of around $20 billion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Berenberg analyst Michael Huttner told CNBC that the losses were much larger than anticipated at most insurance firms because the wildfires were a \u201ccombination of unusual and big.\u201d The uncontained nature of the wildfire was one factor leading to the large losses, he said.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"160\" height=\"90\" src=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2293\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>watch now<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>VIDEO02:41<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>European insurance giants take $3.5 billion hit from Los Angeles wildfires<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>However, the analyst added that profits generated by the companies far exceeded expectations, and pointed to the resiliency of the sector amid large natural disasters.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In late April, Swiss Re further raised the estimate for insured losses to $40 billion from the LA fires, making it one of the deadliest and most expensive disasters for California.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The death toll from the wildfires that ravaged the greater Los Angeles area, covering Eaton and Palisades,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/me.lacounty.gov\/2025\/press-releases\/wildfires-update-30th-death-related-to-the-january-wildfires-confirmed\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rose to 30<\/a>&nbsp;after human remains were found among the charred houses. Millions have been displaced, and thousands of homes and buildings have been destroyed.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>CNBC\u2019s tally would leave European companies on the hook for nearly a tenth of total insured losses.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"160\" height=\"90\" src=\"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2291\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/01\/22\/how-climate-change-is-reshaping-home-insurance-costs-in-the-us.html\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/01\/22\/how-climate-change-is-reshaping-home-insurance-costs-in-the-us.html\">Here\u2019s how climate change is reshaping home insurance costs in California \u2014 and the rest of the U.S.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Reinsurance firms offer policies to primary insurance providers, like&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/CB\/\">Chubb<\/a>, which are present in California and directly deal with customers on the ground. The reinsurance policies typically only kick in after about 400 million euros worth of losses are absorbed by the primary insurance provider.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Outside of Europe, Japanese reinsurers&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/8766.T-JP\/\">Tokio Marine<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/8630.T-JP\/\">Sompo<\/a>&nbsp;disclosed nearly 50 billion yen ($348 million) in losses, significantly higher than the $63 million estimated by JPMorgan analysts in the days after the fire.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>If Swiss Re\u2019s forecast for total insured losses comes to fruition, the Los Angeles wildfire would be four times more devastating than wildfires of the past.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Notable California wildfires<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Wildfire&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Insured loss ($ billion)&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Buildings affected&nbsp;<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Camp fire (2018)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>10<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>18,804<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Tubbs fire (2017)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>10<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>5,643<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Woolsley fire (2018)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>5<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1,643<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Atlas fire (2017)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>4<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>2,352<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Glass fire (2020)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>3<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1,955<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><br><em>Source:&nbsp;JPMorgan, Jan. 10<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>In 2018, wildfires in California cost the whole industry around $16 billion in losses. During that event, Munich Re absorbed the largest share of the loss at 500 million euros. The experience of that disaster and others has led to per-event deductibles (or excess) rising from 100 million euros to 400 million euros today.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The losses to insurers, both in the U.S. and Europe, have also been partly reduced by the introduction of the FAIR Plan, a pooled fund built with contributions from multiple insurance providers in California. The system is expected to absorb the bulk of the losses first before private insurance companies begin paying out.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/25\/trump-50percent-tariffs-eu-july-9.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/25\/trump-50percent-tariffs-eu-july-9.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><u>Trump delays 50% tariffs on EU to July 9<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published Sun, May 25 20256:27 PM EDTUpdated Sun, May 25 20257:57 PM EDT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/erin-doherty\/\">Erin Doherty<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/@erinpdoherty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">@erinpdoherty<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key Points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to delay imposing a 50% tariff on European goods until July 9.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u201cI agreed to the extension \u2014 July 9, 2025 \u2014 It was my privilege to do so,\u201d Trump wrote on Truth Social.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ursula Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said that she needed until July 9 to \u201creach a good deal.\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>President&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a>&nbsp;said Sunday that he agreed to an extension on the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/23\/trump-recommends-50percent-tariff-on-european-union-starting-june-1.html\">50% tariff<\/a>&nbsp;deadline on the European Union until July 9.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cI received a call today from Ursula von der Leyen, President of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/european-union\/\">European Commission<\/a>, requesting an extension on the June 1st deadline on the 50% Tariff with respect to Trade and the European Union,\u201d Trump&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/114570775887793036\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote<\/a>&nbsp;on Truth Social.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cI agreed to the extension \u2014 July 9, 2025 \u2014 It was my privilege to do so,\u201d he added.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Trump\u2019s post came after Von der Leyen said that she had a \u201cgood call\u201d with Trump, but needed until July 9 to \u201creach a good deal.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cThe EU and US share the world\u2019s most consequential and close trade relationship,\u201d she&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/vonderleyen\/status\/1926729529436913794\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wrote<\/a>&nbsp;on X.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cEurope is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively,\u201d she continued.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>HI Market View Commentary 05-27-2025 Let\u2019s review the Short call for some of you who asked questions about that option the last couple of weeks Short Call = The Obligation to sell a stock at a certain price for a certain period of time. Some of you were worried about having your stock called away.&nbsp; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","tve_updated_post":"","tve_custom_css":"","tve_user_custom_css":"","tve_globals":{},"tcb2_ready":0,"tcb_editor_enabled":0,"tve_landing_page":"","_tve_header":"","_tve_footer":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screen-Shot-05-27-25-at-09.54-PM.png","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screen-Shot-05-27-25-at-09.54-PM.png","author_info":{"display_name":"hurleyinvest2","author_link":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/?author=1"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2290\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hurleyinvestments.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}